I. Influencing factors
Raw material blue carbon market: blue carbon market weak operation this week. Coal mines have resumed production after the festival, the overall market supply has rebounded, coal prices dropped 100 yuan/ton, blue carbon cost surface support declined significantly, blue carbon enterprise profits rebounded at the same time. On February 10, the mainstream price of small and medium-sized materials in Shenmu market was 1,505-1,680 yuan/ton, and coke surface was 1,030-1100 yuan/ton. Fugu market medium and small material mainstream price 1410-1700 yuan/ton, coke 1100-1300 yuan/ton; Yuyang market medium and small material mainstream price 1580-1650 yuan/ton, coke surface 1260 yuan/ton; The mainstream price of focal surface in Zhongwei market is 1250 yuan/ton; Shizuishan market medium and small material price 1500 yuan/ton, coke surface 1150 yuan/ton; The price of small and medium-sized materials in the Ordos market is 1500-1530 yuan/ton, and the coke surface is 1200 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium materials in Hohhot market is 1450-1500 yuan/ton, and the coke surface is 1150 yuan/ton. The price of medium and small materials in Hami market is 1500-2200 yuan/ton, the coke surface is 550-1400 yuan/ton, and the mixture is 680 yuan/ton. Changji market price of small and medium materials 850-1450 yuan/ton, coke surface 650 yuan/ton, the above are ex-factory price cash tax.
Coke market: From February 3 to February 10, 2023, the coke market temporarily operated stably. As of February 3, the price of quasi-grade 1 metallurgical coke in Shanxi was 2,482 yuan/ton, unchanged. Coke market continued to temporarily stable operation this week, the supply side of the coking enterprises by the profit impact, the recent start is basically the same as the previous period, the recent sales slightly slowed down, downstream steel mills on demand procurement, plant coke inventory has a certain accumulation. On the demand side, steel prices after the holiday did not perform well, and the purchase intention of steel mills was slightly reduced, and most of the current purchases were maintained on demand. In the future, the business club believes that the overall market atmosphere is weak, and it is expected that the price is stable and weak. Market focus on each link coke inventory, downstream steel sales and raw material price trend.
Downstream metal magnesium: This week, the metal magnesium market stabilized first and then fell, the factory quoted a relatively strong price at the beginning of the week, the mainstream price of magnesium ingotage was 22000 yuan/ton. With the slow follow-up of market demand, the magnesium factory began to drop - grade shipment one after another, and the decline in the price of blue carbon in the late week made the magnesium factory even worse. On the 10th, 99.90% magnesium ingotage was quoted 21800 yuan/ton in cash including tax in Shaanxi mainstream, and the market transaction was very few. Shanxi main factory cash tax offer 22000-22100 yuan/ton.
In terms of manufacturers: in February, the electricity bill of Ningxia, Qinghai, Gansu and Shaanxi, the main ferrosilicon producing areas, increased by about 0.02 yuan/degree, and the overall profit has narrowed, but it is still in the profit stage. Ferrosilicon inventory as a whole is still in the post-holiday inventory reduction stage. The operating rate changed little, and the average daily output increased slightly.
Steel bidding information: on Wednesday, He Steel in February ferrosilicon bidding inquiry 8400 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan/ton from the previous month (January pricing 8750 yuan/ton), the quantity of 1466 tons, 633 tons less than January; East China Steel mill pricing 8400-8500 yuan/ton. At present, traders have high uncertainty about the future market, low willingness to stock up, and mainly purchase on demand.
2. Analysis and prediction
Ferrosilicon supply market recovery is obvious, some manufacturers return to production basically close to full capacity, the supply trend will gradually accelerate, in February, the supply market, just to resume the production process, the current transaction pressure, speculative activity is low, the market wait and see sentiment is strong, waiting for the river steel bidding price guidance. However, as demand gradually recovers later, ferrosilicon may rebound.
