Silicon metal outlook
On the supply side. According to the statistics of the Silicon Industry Branch, the total output of Yunnan in December is expected to be 19,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 11,000 tons and a month-on-month decrease of 19,000 tons. In December, individual factories in Sichuan carried out load reduction actions, and the monthly output is expected to drop slightly to 24,000 tons from the previous month. In December, some factories in Xinjiang have plans to increase the furnace production, and the total output increase is expected to be 4,000 tons. It is expected that the output in Xinjiang in December will total 87,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 13,000 tons and a month-on-month increase of 4,000 tons.
On the demand side. In the polysilicon market, some companies in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia increased their load in December, and it is expected that the domestic polysilicon output in December will reach a new high of 35,000 tons. In the silicone market, the monomer overhaul plan in December may decrease compared with that in November. The organic silicon and polysilicon enterprises have started steadily, which has brought certain guarantee to the market demand for metal silicon.
The price trend of silicon metal in the future is supported by many favorable factors. On the one hand, although the increase in Xinjiang's construction load in December will supplement the decrease in southern supply, it is considered that the increase is less than half of the decrease in Sichuan and Yunnan. The supply of silicon metal will still show a downward trend compared with the previous month. On the one hand, downstream operations are starting steadily, coupled with the Christmas and Spring Festival factors, downstream stocking operations are expected to gradually begin. Third, the current prices of organic silicon and polysilicon are at a low level. Based on the relatively optimistic performance of the supply and demand fundamentals in the next 1-2 months, their prices have stopped falling and returned to a steady state.
To sum up, the price of silicon metal still has a positive momentum during the dry season. Under the situation of insufficient external demand and gradual growth of domestic demand, it is unlikely that prices will rise sharply. In December, the market as a whole is dominated by destocking, and the price of silicon remains stable. After the inventory is digested to a low level and the previous price increase is gradually digested by the downstream, the price may once again enter the upward channel.
